The International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) has published a study suggesting that as prices for new EVs come down, second-hand EVs will eventually sell for the same amount as used gasoline-powered vehicles of the same size and feature set. According to ICCT, preowned EVs should reach cost parity with their ICE cousins by 2025-2030.
The study includes charts and graphs that attempt to clarify their assumptions. The bottom line is in ten years or less, low-income drivers will be able to own an affordable EV for the same price as an ICE. (Internal Combustion Engine.)
Since EVs generally cost less to operate, most drivers will have no reason to drive an ICE.
In the published study, ICCT concludes “Currently, once accounting for fuel and other operating savings, some households in all income groups could save money by replacing at least one vehicle with an EV; this increases to 45% of households by 2025 and 95% of households by 2030.”
So, in less than a decade, 95% of households could come out ahead if they replaced at least one ICE vehicle with an EV. If I read the study correctly, that includes the cost of the EV and the associated charging infrastructure.
Of course, studies are like statistics. You can find ways to use a study to say anything you want. While the ICCT says they offer unbiased research, their mission statement reads “Our mission is to improve the environmental performance and energy efficiency of road, marine, and air transportation, in order to benefit public health and mitigate climate change.”
I am certainly not implying the ICCT cannot be impartial, but their mission statement suggests they strongly favor EVs and zero-emission vehicles. There is nothing wrong with that, but I wonder if that colors the timeline of the study in any way.
If the study proves accurate, the reign of ICE vehicles won’t last another decade.
Click here to read the entire ICCT study.